Naturally, higher education officials and their defenders in the state legislature have been rolling out a new strategy to prevent or lesson the budget cuts. Now they claim that higher education is the engine of economic development. Through higher eduction we can train a better educated work force, attract high tech companies, create jobs, and diversify and grow the economy.
Education and research in higher-ed hasn't changed much since the 19th century. What has changed are the number of jobs, beyond education and research, higher education thinks it is good at.
Check out some of the recent arguments in favor of education driving our future economic growth: Derby (former regent), Wixom (current regent), Dr. Eliot Parker (UNR economics professor), Parker again (this guy is always hung up on not having enough government employees relative to the rest of the nation), Dr. Rob Lang (UNLV sociology professor and Brookings Institution).
To make a long story short, these people think higher education can do anything and do it better than anyone. Need to run a retirement home - call Higher Ed! Need a golf course managed - call Higher Ed! Need a business park built - call Higher Ed! Need a rock concert - call Higher Ed! Need to incubate and develop entrepreneurial businesses - forget those venture capitalists who carefully weigh risks with potential returns to ensure a wise use of scarce resources and CALL HIGHER ED!
Basically, they are trying to do everything but educate and research - the primary function of the university.
Seriously though, if higher education is so good at doing all of this, why have private enterprise at all? Lets just have everything be run by higher education. Maybe you're starting to see how silly their argument really is? If not, keep reading as the facts just don't support their position.
There are fewer farmers per capita today than in the past yet they produce considerably more food and feed millions more people, all thanks to something I call "technological innovation" Higher-ed, on the other hand, employs more people per student than ever before.
Basically these individuals see Nevada's struggling economy (fact), high unemployment rates (fact), large budget shortfall (fact), gaming dominant economy (fact) and assume this is because we don't have very many college graduates per capita (relative to the rest of the nation we have few college graduates, but it is a logical fallacy to assume our problems are because we don't have enough). Some argue that we don't spend enough on higher education, but relative to the rest of the nation, we actually spend above average already (see page 29).
Chancellor Dan Klaich was so sure about a positive relationship between higher education and economic growth and job creation that when he testified before the Nevada System of Higher Education Regents he claimed the relationship was "indisputable."
Since he's set the bar at "indisputable" all I have to do for now is cast a shadow of a doubt on this theory. This is very, very important because we're talking about the state's future and hundreds of millions of dollars that could be used elsewhere to boost the economy, improve lives, and create jobs. Over the next few decades this translates to billions of dollars so this is a big deal.
To that end I've done a few simple regressions. Yes, this is a simple analysis and a far more complicated and scientifically robust analysis can be done, just remember, I'm only trying to cast doubt on Klaich's "indisputable" claim. Also note, higher education hasn't bothered to do the scientifically robust study to even prove their own claim.
Here is what I find:
- There is no relationship between the percentage of college graduates in a state and unemployment rates
- There is no relationship between the percentage of college graduates in a state and economic growth since the recession started
- There is no relationship between the percentage of college graduates in a state and the state's budget shortfall
- There is no relationship between having a Top 100 university and net-migration
- There is a very small relationship between having a Top 100 university and a statistically higher unemployment rate.
These findings, at the very least, suggest there is evidence to dispute the "indisputable" claim that higher education can be the engine of economic development. What is needed is a more robust analysis on higher education and its relationship to the economy - an analysis higher education has yet to perform to prove its own bloated existence. Specifically, lets study the return on investment. Until these studies are done, higher education officials should drop the claim that they can help grow and diversify our state economy or even help create jobs.
Read my column in the RJ about this issue.
(I put up the wrong P-score and t-stat, I've made the corrections and added the coefficients on March 1, 2011).
College attainment and unemployment in 2009: R Square: 0.002472 | Adjusted R Square" -0.01789 | P-value: 0.728982 | t Stat:: -0.34847 | coefficient: -0.02001 (no relationship)
College attainment and unemployment in 2010: R Square: 0.018938 | Adjusted R Square: -0.00108 | P-value: 0.335547 | t Stat: -0.97256 | coefficient: -0.05136 (no relationship)
College attainment and GDP growth from 2008 to 2009: R Square: 0.001985 | Adjusted R Square -0.01838 | P-value: 0.756201 | t Stat: -0.31222 | coefficient: -0.01975 (no relationship)
College attainment and GDP growth from 2007 to the 2009: R Square 0.001181 | Adjusted R Square: -0.0192 | P-value: 0.81082 | t Stat: -0.24066 | coefficient: -.0.00026 (no relationship)
College attainment and budget shortfall: R Square: 0.02046 | Adjusted R Square: -0.00403 | P-value: 0.36617 | t Stat: 0.914045 | coefficient: 0.002969 (no relationship)
Yes, college graduates are more likely to be employed than non-college grads, but across states there is NO RELATIONSHIP between college attainment rates and state unemployment rates (a very weak R2 and a negative adjusted R mean there is nothing really going on with the relationship at all). Why is this the case? It may be because so few jobs actually require a college degree. It may also be that we aren't adjusting for the age difference in college graduates. That is, new college graduates have higher unemployment rates than older college graduates. This is a plausible theory considering more and more people (both students and professionals) are watching the value of the college degree plummet (while debt to earn a degree rises).
College attainment and unemployment in 2009: R Square: 0.002472 | Adjusted R Square" -0.01789 | P-value: 0.728982 | t Stat:: -0.34847 | coefficient: -0.02001 (no relationship)
College attainment and unemployment in 2010: R Square: 0.018938 | Adjusted R Square: -0.00108 | P-value: 0.335547 | t Stat: -0.97256 | coefficient: -0.05136 (no relationship)
College attainment and GDP growth from 2008 to 2009: R Square: 0.001985 | Adjusted R Square -0.01838 | P-value: 0.756201 | t Stat: -0.31222 | coefficient: -0.01975 (no relationship)
College attainment and GDP growth from 2007 to the 2009: R Square 0.001181 | Adjusted R Square: -0.0192 | P-value: 0.81082 | t Stat: -0.24066 | coefficient: -.0.00026 (no relationship)
College attainment and budget shortfall: R Square: 0.02046 | Adjusted R Square: -0.00403 | P-value: 0.36617 | t Stat: 0.914045 | coefficient: 0.002969 (no relationship)
Yes, college graduates are more likely to be employed than non-college grads, but across states there is NO RELATIONSHIP between college attainment rates and state unemployment rates (a very weak R2 and a negative adjusted R mean there is nothing really going on with the relationship at all). Why is this the case? It may be because so few jobs actually require a college degree. It may also be that we aren't adjusting for the age difference in college graduates. That is, new college graduates have higher unemployment rates than older college graduates. This is a plausible theory considering more and more people (both students and professionals) are watching the value of the college degree plummet (while debt to earn a degree rises).



















